GDP Revised Down Again: Why Believe In The Lies?

The U.S. GDP was revised down, again. The Commerce Department reported its third estimate for third-quarter GDP at a 2.2% annual rate, below the 2.7% rate economists had expected the number to be revised to.

It was the second downward revision to the figure, which was cut to 2.8% last month from an originally reported amazing 3.5%.

That 3.5% led to significant stock market gains. Today, with the downward revision, the markets are... up again.

The same type of problem happens with unemployment rates, which are based on expected death model and other such estimates, often profoundly incorrect.

Why anyone would choose to believe or pay attention to these numbers is amazing.

Chile: Stellar Financial Performance That Teaches How To Survive a Severe Recession

Chile and Brazil are the best performing economies in Latin-America (some may even say the Americas). A relatively small country hidden between mountains, sea, desert, and ice, but well known for its wines, fruits, and copper, Chile is often overlooked as a financially solid powerhouse.

There is a great article on Chile at topgunfp that explains why and how a small country manages to escape the worst of the global recession, by simply using their brains and planning for the worst case scenarios.

With an economy substantially dependent on copper prices, Chile in the past rode the boom and bust commodity cycles. Its current finance minister made a point of avoiding such cycles, by preparing for bad times and setting up a rainy day fund which would allow the government to keep investing.

We track chilean ADRs here:

The average ROI YTD is 88.65%. Top performer is a financial, PVD, a private pension fund administrator.

SQM is a great chemical and fertilizer company one we have written about before.

The ECH ETF tracks Chilean stocks.





Here are excerpts from the topgunfp article.

"While the US economy stagnates, an economic miracle continues in the unlikeliest of places: Chile. Now ranked as the 6th most free economy in the world (the US is tied for 8th), Chile has quietly experienced steady economic growth for the last 30 years. [....]

As the Minister of Labor and Social Security from 1978-1980 and the Minister of Mining from 1980 to 1981, Pinera and his team of Chicago Boys undertook a radical restructuring of the Chilean economy. They privatized the nation’s social security system, created a private health insurance program, reestablished democratic trade unions and established constitutional property rights in the mining industry. Chile’s privatized Social Security system is the envy of the world, fully funded in private accounts and amounting to more than $120 billion, about 80% of Chile’s GDP. As a result, after a 0.9% annualized per capita growth rate from 1810 to 1983, Chile’s growth rate has surged to 4.3% for the last 20 years. [...]

In 2006, [Andres] Velasco returned to a booming Chilean economy, the result of surging copper prices. Chile is the world’s leading copper producer and state owned Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, was raking in profits. Government coffers were fat and the people demanded social programs and other goodies.

Velasco, however, insisted that the annual budget be set based on a more conservative estimate of the price of copper, not the current price. The resulting surpluses would be invested in a rainy day fund. Tens of thousands of students protested in the streets in mid-2006, seeking free school transportation and education reforms. In August 2007, Chile’s top union leader called a national strike, accusing Mr. Velasco of “declaring war” on workers by resisting wage demands. The protests ended in street fights and the arrest of hundreds. In September of last year, protestors broke into a presentation by Velasco carrying an effigy of him and shouting “The copper money is for the poor people.”

But Velasco had experienced at first hand the economic catastrophe of the 1970s and prior boom and bust cycles based on commodity prices. “This is a movie that may be novel to some Americans, but this is a movie that people in other places of the world, Chile included, know we have seen. This is a cycle that needs to be ended. We have been out to show that a Latin American country can manage properly, and not mismanage, a commodity cycle. You save in times of abundance, and you invest in lean times.” Velasco was steadfast in his principles.

Last year, the copper market started to crash along with the global economy. The Chilean economy ground to a halt. But because of the rainy day fund accumulated during the fat years, the Chilean government has been able to invest in the economy and stimulate it. As a result, Chile’s economy is expected to experience only the mildest of recessions. Velasco, who set out as a youth on a quest “to understand how did this happen [to Chile] and how do we make sure it will not happen again”, was vindicated. After being much maligned, Velasco and Chilean President Michelle Bachelet have seen their popularity surge in the last year.

If only California and The United States were more like….. Chile. Who ever thought anybody would say that? The principles of sound economics have been around for hundreds of years now. The logic is rigorous and the historical evidence convincing. Really, it’s nothing more than common sense. At least we can be encouraged by Chile’s example".

Roubini Says US Dollar Has 6 More Months of Lows, The Carry-Trade Goes On

Economist Nouriel Roubini is predicting the Us Dollar has 6 more months as the carry-trade currency. While he maintains that global markets have rallied "too much, too soon, too fast", a correction will not happen right away because the cheap dollar will still encourage investors to seek higher-yielding assets for a few more months.

"A correction might occur, but the risk of a correction is more in the medium term than in the short term," The U.S. economic recovery will be anemic, subpar and U-shaped, which should translate into worse-than-expected corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators, eventually forcing asset prices down.

"I see this kind of tension due to the fact that I think that the real economy will surprise on the downside, especially when the stimulus fizzles out, but on the other side you have these effects of policies, especially monetary and liquidity, that keep asset prices levitating,"

Emerging Markets and Brazil

(We track latin-american ADRS live here and global ETFs here)

Commenting on the effects of their rising currencies, he says emerging markets will be challenged toto implement effective policies to curb excessive capital inflows that have led to "overvalued" currencies.

"The solution is probably along the lines of capital controls," he said, noting that the measures such as as the 2% IOF (tax) adopted by the Brazilian government so far were not "tight enough" to curb short-term dollar inflows. He remains positive about the Brazilian economy, in spite of "froth and euphoria" in the domestic markets. Humm, we commented in this before.

Top Global Currency ETFs To Move Away From The US Dollar: It All Depends on Timeframe

We ran the RSI numbers on all currency ETFs on the market. This identifies those are that are oversold and overbought and may then be used as indicators for the top ETFs to buy and to sell.

Short term (RSI daily):

(please click to enlarge)

In the short term, some ETFs are extremely oversold: URR, EU, ERO, FXE, all related to long Euro positions. The overbought ETFs are DRR and EUO, both double short Euro.

Long Term:

Using longer timeframes, there are no oversold currencies, although EUO is getting close (interestingly, this one is overbought in the short term, as above). The Japanese Yen and Australian dollar are the most overbought ones.

Names and volumes

For your convenience, here are the names of these currency ETFs and average volumes:

Note that we track these ETFs live as one of our Tracking Live sites.

You may receive alerts of these currency ETFs sent automatically to you by entering the symbols in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool, (powered by INO).

Please do your own due dilligence.

Coxe: Copenhagen and The Jihad Against Global Warming Are Very Bullish For Oil Stocks

Speaking of oil, Don Coxe's webcast yesterday was heavily focussed on oil, and global warming. He says that oil sands stock have been big victims of the Jihad against global warming. Coxe goes off on a tangent and talks about the "extremists" and "rioters". This has to be bullish for the oil industry, he says. Global warming deniers may like it.

Coxe also discusses the US dollar, Euro, and Greece, which Coxe says fudged its books to get in the Euro zone. The problems in Europe are tied to the USD, the rally in the USD clipped $100 off the price of gold. The short position on the USD is massive. Central banks in Asia are very alarmed by asset bubbles in their regions due to "financial heroin".

Listen to his audio cast.

Brazilian Oil Production To Top Mexico's and Venezuela's: PBR

Brazilian newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo reports today that Brazilian oil production will surpass that of Mexico and Venezuela by 2011.

"A change in the hierarchy of the oil in Latin America is underway, as the production in Brazil is close near to surpassing energy powers Mexico and Venezuela. While these two countries have seen their production drop dramatically in recent years, Brazil's has been following a steady rise, and it will only accelerate as oil fields in deep-sea begin to produce in the coming months.

Current trends indicate that Brazil may rise to the top of the list until 2011. Traditionally, high oil production caused state-owned enterprises in Mexico and Venezuela to become complacent in the search for new sources of energy, said David Shields, an independent energy analyst in Mexico City. "Basically, the reason is that Brazil had to deal with a crisis and Venezuela and Mexico have never had," he said.

Petrobras

The Brazilian company Petrobras has also received a harsh lesson in the free market economy, which forced the company to improve its efficiency. Petrobras had to adapt when the former President of Brazil Fernando Henrique Cardoso opened the oil sector of Brazil, traditionally a monopoly of Petrobras, to competition from private companies in the mid-1990s. The result was a wave of exploration, which made the production rise by about 50% since 2000. Petrobras, which accounts for more than 95% of the country's production, or just over 2 million barrels of oil per day in October this year. If combined natural gas and the company's operations outside of Brazil, Petrobras's daily production was about 2.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 5.5% compared to October 2008.

The trend is that the crude oil production in Brazil continues to rise, as fields in the pre-salt regions begin to produce. Petrobras is targeting a domestic production of 2.25 million barrels of oil per day in 2010, expected to grow to 2.43 million in 2011 and 2.58 million in 2012.

Yesterday, the U.S. Anadarko Petroleum and Devon Energy said that their joint projects in Brazil found oil for the second time in the pre-salt region of the Campos Basin. Brazil has also highlighted the Tupi field, which is the largest oil discovery in the Western Hemisphere since the Cantarell field in Mexico in 1976. It is estimated that Tupi has between 5 billion and 8 billion of oil equivalent. The pilot production will yield about 120,000 barrels per day in just over a year. "
Petrobras trades as symbol PBR on the NYSE. It has risen 79% this year:



Here are INO's tool trade signal on PBR:


(please click to enlarge)

You can access a trial of the tool here (which works for any stock), or you may receive technical analysis and alerts on PBR by entering the symbol in the Technical Trend Analysis Tool.

The Top Countries At Risk of Default

Here is a compilation of all the countries at risk, with updated ratings by S&P, Moody's and Fitch.
The tables also show the GDP change for 2008 and forecats for 2009 and 2010, as well as the percentage debt/GDP. Some of these numbers are very scary.

Iceland is the worse and the problems there are well known, they hit the fan this year. Next worse in term of debt/gdp ratio are the Greece, U.K, Portugal, Hungary, and Iceland.

The worst drops in GDP are for Ireland, Hungary, Bulgary, Taiwan.



You can view all global/country ETFs on the market live here.

Canadian ABCP Saga: Just a $130M Settlement

Thousands of ABCP files were examined.

"The banks and dealers "did not take adequate steps to ensure that its Approved
Persons understood the complexities of the third-party asset-backed commercial
paper product made available for purchase to its retail clients."

Today there was another chapter on the Canadian $32B ABCP saga. If my readers remember, that was the reason this blog started back in Agust 2007. The quote above was the reason for the settlement.

The Canadian big banks have agreed to settlements of $130M. This includes CIBC, Bank of Nova Scotia, HSBC, Cannacord, Credential. I was wondering where was National Bank in this as it was one of the worst parties. It turns out that they have been dealing with Quebec's securities regulator and apparently have a settlement approved but it won't be announced until the other banks' deals have been approved in Monday's hearings. National Bank will pay the highest fine of all.

Coventree and DB are still fighting in court.

Remember that small and medium investors where forced to accept their short term investments transformed into long term loans. The banks appear to be walking away with a tiny fine, which was not really unexpected, unfortunately.

Watch BNN segment.

The Globe & Mail reports:

"A group of Canada's biggest banks and investment dealers have struck regulatory settlements expected to total more than $130 million related to their role in the $32-billion meltdown of the country's asset-based commercial paper market in 2007.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and its CIBC World Markets unit, Bank of Nova Scotia's Scotia Capital, HSBC Bank Canada, Canaccord Financial and Credential Securities are all scheduled to appear before Ontario-based regulators Monday to approve the penalties, which were finalized this week. The tallies are expected to range from less than $1 million for Credential to as much as about $30 million for Scotia, said people familiar with the negotiations.
National Bank of Canada, which has been dealing with Quebec's securities regulator, has already had its settlement approved. However, the deal won't be announced until the other banks' deals have been approved in Monday's hearings. National will pay the biggest fine of about $70 million, reflecting its role as the biggest player in the ABCP market, sources said.

These sanctions are well below the $300-million-plus in penalties that regulators initially sought from the investment banks. Market watchdogs opened negotiations by asking for much higher amounts, and as the numbers came down the banks became more willing to settle to put the ABCP affair behind them.

All of the settlements are on the same theme, that the banks and dealers "did not take adequate steps to ensure that its Approved Persons understood the complexities of the third-party asset-backed commercial paper product made available for purchase to its retail clients," to quote from the press release early Friday that explained Credential Securities' date with the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. The Ontario Securities Commission is also holding settlement hearings Monday.

Firms that refused to settle will have to fight the regulators in court. Market watchdogs are taking that route as they push for sanctions against Coventree Capital Group Inc. and the local unit of Deutsche Bank AG, a seller of the paper.

CIBC World Markets is expected to pay about $20 million. HSBC between $5 million and $10 million, Canaccord Capital $3-million hit, and Credential Securities about $200,000, sources said.
Former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge said Friday Canada still has some lessons to learn from the ABCP situation. "It was a very bad chapter in our history that I think points to a very important thing going forward, and that is the need to think very hard about what the mandate for [securities] commissions is going to be, because fundamentally every basic principle of good securities was violated in those contracts," he said in an interview, noting that the commercial paper was opaque and investors were unable to determine what the underlying assets were.
The complexity of the product "violates every first principle of what the [securities] commissions should be doing, and points to a need for a rethink of the mandate we're going to give to the [securities] commissions going forward," Dodge said.

It's not only Canada that needs to take action on this front, he added. Regulators and bodies such as the Financial Stability Board have been more focused on reforming banks than they have on reforming capital markets, he said. The recent announcement that the Bank of Canada and securities industry in this country are taking action to support so-called repo or repurchase agreements is a step in the right direction, but many other markets are still not operating in a transparent manner, he said".

Brazilian Metro Unemployment Is Lowest On Record in November

The Brazilian unemployment rate in November calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the six main metropolitan regions of the country was 7.4% in November, the lowest on record since the series began in 2002. This is a drop from 7.5% in October.

In November 2008, the rate was 7.6%.

According to Cimar Azeredo, the IBGE manager that evaluates the monthly survey, "the trend in increasing occupancy and falling unemployment."

Chart of unemployment rates:



EWZ and BRF (small cap) are the ETFs that follow Brazilian stocks:






BZF tracks the Brazilian a real (currency):




Here is the performance of all Brazilian ADRS this year (last column), from our Tracking Live site. Gafisa, a builder continues to lead with an ROI of +234%, followed very closely by GOL (airline) and Braskem (chemicals), two companies we have discussed in this blog in the past):


(please click to enlarge)

Citibank Astounding Options Activity, and "An Opportunity Too Good To Miss"

Update from yesterday. Here is the status on the December and January options.

Quite interestingly, there are more calls than puts open, and for January there were far more calls than puts traded:

December 2009, 2.1M calls open, 1.8M puts open:

(please click to enlarge)

January 2010 3.1M calls open, 1.6M puts:

Today I doubled down on the C Jan 4 calls and kept the 2.50 puts.

I am lucky that my cable line-up does not include Jim Cramer, who recommended to buy C on December 14 (humm, 3 days ago?):

Jim Cramer: "tonight I am urging you to take a look at an individual stock right at the top of the show, and I never do that. ... An opportunity too good to miss ... I think you should buy buy buy.... CITIGROUP!... Mooooooh ":

Jail him!

S&P500: SPY December Max Pain is 105

Here is Max Pain for SPY in December:



SPY is currently trading around $110.

Dollar Up, Gold Down: Straddles Results

Here are the results for the straddles posted two days ago, for the FOMC meeting. Prices as of 12:15PM today:

Has The US Dollar Botommed Out? Conflicting Long and Short Term Signals: What To Do

The US Dollar has rebounded in the last few days. The long term trend is still down, but the short term trend is now up. These are conflicting signals. INO's latest education video talks exactly about this and what to do.

Watch video

This signal is verified on UUP on Nov 17 when UUP was $22.34 (now $23.01, or +3.0%, which is a lot for currencies):

(please click to enlarge)

(You can try these tools yourself and tun it on any stock or ETF on a free trial).

Citibank Shares Plummet on News of New Shares To Be Issued: Extreme Profits

Following up on yesterday's post on huge number of Citibank puts, today C announced a new share offering at $3.15/share. The stock plummeted promptly to $3.20 in after-market hours:



Obviously somebody knew something and was buying those puts, and will have extreme profits. Perhaps Abu Dhabi Investments? ;-) My Jan 2,.50 puts bought at $0.02 doubled in price today, tomorrow promises to be another great day.

The number of puts continues to be staggering (3.1M), but interestingly, today there were more Jan calls traded than puts (227k vs 107k). This included 198k Jan 4 calls. Very interesting. This is why straddles are so useful. Tomorrow the intent is to sell some of the puts and increase the number of calls with the profits.

Puts:


Calls:



The news released today (Reuters):


"Citigroup Inc. announced the pricing of 5.4 billion common shares and 35 million tangible equity units as part of its agreement with the U.S. government and its regulators to repay U.S. taxpayers for the $20 billion the government holds in TARP trust preferred securities and to terminate the loss-sharing agreement with the government. The common stock priced at $3.15 per share, generating net proceeds of approximately $17 billion. The tangible equity units priced at $100 each, generating net proceeds of approximately $3.5 billion (about $2.8 billion counted as equity.) Upon completion of the offerings and the repayment of the $20 billion of the TARP trust preferred securities and the termination of the loss-sharing agreement, Citi will no longer be deemed to be a recipient of exceptional financial assistance under TARP. The U.S. Treasury (UST) announced it would extend its lock-up period on the sale of its 7.7 billion share common equity stake to 90 days from 45 days after the completion of this offering. The UST decided not to sell any of its shares in connection with Citi`s sale of common stock and tangible equity units. The tangible equity units are comprised of a prepaid stock purchase contract and junior subordinated amortizing note. Each stock purchase contract has settlement date of December 22, 2012 and will settle for between 889 million and 1.1 billion shares of Citi common stock, subject to adjustment as described in final prospectus relating to the offering. "

Citibank: Massive Number of Puts Traded Ahead of Abu-Dhabi Lawsuit, 1.2M January Puts

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is seeking to end an agreement to buy the bank’s stock for $31.83 to $37.24 a piece (about 10 times its current price), or to receive more than $4 billion in damages if the deal is upheld.

They have filed a claim alleging “fraudulent misrepresentations” tied to its agreement to buy the common stock, Citigroup.

Coincidence or not (not!), the number of puts traded in Citibank has been massive. I mentioned this on our skype trading session today. Take a look:

December options:

Those 137k Dec 4 sold incuded mine. They were exited for 125% profit and half the proceeds were used to buy a January strangle. There are an astounding 624k 4 puts alone.

January 2010 options:



Most of the puts were bought after 3PM, which is when was trading them. That is why I noticed the volume spike. There are 495k 4 puts in January, 399k 5 puts, and another 360k 2.50 puts, for a total of 1.25M puts! Somebody is about to get very rich.

The strangle bought was the 2.50 puts at $0.02 and 4 calls. This may be about to get very interesting!

Bovespa 2010 Projections: Targets Range From 80,000 to 89,000 Level (+30%)

Bovespa floor


Agencia Estado interviewed several economists in Brazil about the prospects for 2010.

Brazil's Bovespa began in 2009 at under 38,000 points, but ended the year sporting a greater appreciation. After going from heaven to hell amid the worsening financial crisis in the second half of 2008, Bovespa had a comeback in 2009 with the resumption of IPOs and a flight of imbound foreign capital.

Bovespa was the scene of the largest stock offerings in the world this year - Santander (U.S. $ 13.2B) and Visanet (U.S. $ 8.4B). The Brazilian stock market rose about 84% and ended the year much higher, surprising most experts. Only the Shanghai Stock Exchange has a similar growth rate in the year of 78%. This appreciation of the Bovespa index gained in 2009 is even more staggering when compared to the ROI od the Dow, 19.6%, which in turn is similar to the exchanges of London, 19.9%, and Paris, 19% - data computed until yesterday.



The Bovespa suffered for only two months of losses (in February and June). The Brazilian stock market is very retrieving its record high of 73,516 points achieved in May 2008. For 2010, the promise is of a very favorable year for the Brazilian stock exchange, driven mainly by the growth of the domestic economy, as opposed to the rest of the world which tends to have moderate recovery. But the gains seen this year filled not be repeated with the same intensity and volatility may be exacerbated due to external variables.

Forecasts for the Bovespa revolve around a recovery 25% to 30%, which would put the index at the level seen in the 80,000 to 89,000 points. While it may seem a lot, after the great year 2009, the Bovespa has room to keep moving forward because of the good prospects for economic growth for 2010 and the improvement of the fundamentals, says the Investment Director of HSBC Global Asset Management, Mario Felisberto.

It projects the index to reach about 80,000 points, with a 28% increase in profits of Brazilian companies.

Home Economics

George Sanders, manager of Infinity Asset manager, estimates that half of the gains seen in the Bovespa this year were an exaggeration. Thus, it will be very difficult to keep pace in 2010, when he predicts an increase of 25% to 30% in the Bovespa index. The domestic economy, even if it follows its path of expansion, will likely deliver the worse numbers, including fiscal, in addition to basic interests rate probably going back up.

Nevertheless, what could limit the gains of the stock market is the external market. "There is a risk that the world less growth, and that inflation rises before growth," he adds.

For the director of the Agora Brokerage Alvaro Bandeira, what will determine whether 2010 will be a good or a wonderful year is the process of withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus implemented by several countries. "That is what will determine the liquidity in financial markets," he said. The beginning of this movement in dismantling of incentives by governments to combat the perverse effects of the financial crisis is expected by March next year.

Mr. Banderia also expects Ibovespa between 80,000 and 85,000 points, or growth between 20% and 25%.

"Regardless of the withdrawal, the positive effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus tends to dissipate over 2010 and, therefore, global economy may have a less vigorous growth than what has been outlined," says the strategist of Brazil's Santander, Marcelo Audi. This is the biggest risk for the Bovespa next year, he said.

U.S. and Europe

Americans and Europeans economic indicators should send mixed signals about the behavior of activity and employment, leaving the market confused. Because of this, the strategist at Santander warns that volatility is increasing, but within a positive trend. He estimates the Bovespa at 80,000, a growth of earnings per share of 28% in 2010 and 22% in 2011.

"The Brazilian stocks are good candidates to have a better return than the average global stock because Brazil has better macroeconomic fundamentals, but the correlation with the external environment will remain strong," says Audi.

Link Investments estimates for 2010 growth of 15% in operating profits and Brazilian Bovespa index of 85,000. "There is still room to buy Brazil. There macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP, interest and exchange rates) and microeconomic enough to believe that Brazil is not just 'fashionable' because it has gone through the first year of the crisis in a positive manner, but also because is able to significantly accelerate the pace of its growth in coming years, "said Link in a report to clients.

In recent weeks, some financial institutions amounted to more than 6% of the forecast GDP growth in 2010, which provides favorable environment for companies to increase their profitability.

For the director of resources of Hera Investment, Nicholas Barbarisi, the rise in 2010 should be based on the fundamentals of the economy, without much excitement. "An increase of 40% is possible, but before any projections, there are several assumptions to think about, such as the external environment. The recovery out there is very slow and may hinder the progress of the domestic stock exchange," he says.

The manager of equities brokerage TOV, Alceu Pedro Cardoso, estimates that 2010 should start at a standstill, with investors awaiting the numbers in the first quarter to see which direction to take for the year. He believes, however, that the trajectory continues positive and reminds that election years are favorable for equities because of the investments committed by the government. He expects a growth of 25% to 30%. "If you go up twice the interest it will be a big deal," he says.

For the economist Legan Asset Fausto Gouveia, the challenge of the investor on the Stock Exchange in 2010 is to be cautious. "The challenge for 2010 is the same as for the end of this year: be selective in choosing stocks and be careful to pay what they are worth," he says. He said sectors oriented to the internal market, such as steel, construction, retail and services should be shine next year, while sectors that depend heavily on exports are less favorable.

Straddles For Fed Notes Release Tomorrow: Throwing Cold Water On The US Dollar Rally

The Fed releases its meeting notes tomorrow. They may throw some cold water on the recent US dollar rally based on expected interest rate hikes.

Here are some crazy straddles for the US dollar, and gold (plus Yamana).



The moves required are tiny, but there are 3 days to expiration, therefore they are extremely risky.

This is not advice. options may cause 100% loss. Please do your own due diligence.

2010 Global GDP Growth: China Leads, Indonesia 2nd, Followed by Singapore and Brazil

Here is the global GDP growth consensus for 2010:



China leads, but keep in mind that their GDP is funny as it includes production of goods, not sales. Spain continues to be atrocious.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

All Major Banks Have Repaid TARP: It's a Myth, Investor Beware

Performance of C, GS, JPM, BAC, and WFC YTD (2009):



Look at the top performer above. We also track all major financials live, with charts, as one of our several Live Tracking sites:



Note that the top performer is BBD, an extremely solid bank - in a growth economy.

So all the major banks have "repaid" TARP, have they repaid all the money that the public lost with their greedy investments in 2007 and 2008? Of course not.

That have not repaid what the people lost. It's a myth.

And how have the banks made money this year? Certainly not by lending, which they are still not doing, and never intended to. They made their profits by trading - with the borrowed money at 0% interest rates.

What a fiasco. Actually not a fiasco, a dishonest scheme. In the process they have deeply damaged the stock markets, and investors are staying far away from it. It is investor beware of what may happen next now that they have "repaid" their loans.

The 787 Dreamliner is Flying (Pictures)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the 787 is now flying: