Thursday, July 23, 2009

Natural Gas Collapses, Again: Do Not Go Long Until Hurricane Season

Exactly one week ago we posted an article stating that the market had given us another opportunity to short natural gas and UNG.

Today natural gas prices collapsed again, dropping between 6 and 7%. UNG dropped today 6.67%:

On July 17 UNG reached a high of $13.61, today it closed at $12.88. moved up 14.04%.

Storage inventory figures released today this week showed a build-up of 66Bcf, which is not that large, however, the issue continues to be that inventories are too large, and specially too large compared with last year's and with the 5-year average:

Note the red line sticking way out of the top of the 5-year channel. Inventories are 23.8% larger than in 2008, and 18.3% larger than the 5-year average. My opinion continues to be to stay away from natural gas until hurricane season starts, and then it would be strictly for short term and speculative purposes.

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