Friday, August 28, 2009

Natural Gas Report: Storage Overflow Likely in October

Here is the natural gas report for the week. Stockpiles continue to increase, this week by 51Bcf, bringing the total to 3,258Bcf. This is 18.8% higher than at the same time last year.

Chart comparing the 5-year average with this year's storage:

The situation can only be described as... critical. Because we are again entering the fall shoulder season, stockpiles will likely have small increases in the remaining 2 or 3 weeks of the summer as some air conditioners are still on, then we expect bigger increases as there neither heating nor cooling occurs. That my fellow readers, is when the fun will start. We are still trending to overflow of all storage capacity in the US, most likely around October timeframe. We also continue to keep an eye on hurricanes and on the sister which is already in overflow in Canada.

Today dropped another 2.55%, while UNG only dropped 0.55%:

Look at this incredible comparison between UNG and over the last 30 days: is already in overflow and may predict what UNG will do.

Hurricane watch:

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1 comment:

Deming said...

"as some air conditioners are still on"

There have been some cooler days recently in the Midwest U.S., along with some rainy days. No air conditioners running here. Feels like autumn already. Actually saw initial change in a couple of trees' leaf color a few days ago while on travel up in Michigan.

Overflow may come before October at this rate!

Re: Hurricane season

IMO, depending on where the hurricane hits, inland refineries without exposure to the coasts and some agriculture products may offer a better trading opportunity than nat gas.

Just my 2 cents.


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