The daily trading volume of Brazilian stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (through ADRS) hit a record $4.07B in May. Volumes have jumped higher in light of S&P upgrade of Brazil to investment grade.
It is interesting to note that this volume is actually higher than the daily at the Bovespa (Sao Paulo Exchange) itself ($3.8B).
The top traded ADRS are:
PBR, Petrobras ON $1.5B
RIO, Vale $1.1B
BBD, Bradesco $244M
UBB, Unibanco $166M
SID, Siderurgica Nacional $155M
GGB, Gerdau $128M
ABV, Ambev $68M
Other ADRs:
ITU, Banco Itau
SDA, Sadia
PDA, Perdigao
SDA and PDA are the top food producers, great companies for those interested in ag. markets.
Source: O Estado de Sao Paulo.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Brazilian ADRs Trading Hit Record in New York
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The US Peso

The USD has lost 6.5% on average against the Pesos since Jan 2007.
(obs. Cuban peso not shown as it is a frozen rate. )
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Household Income Spent on Food
The US Department of Agriculture publishes a nice report detailing the percentage of household income that is spent on food for various countries. From the latest report, the countries that spent the least are:
1. US 5.8%
2. Singapore 8.1%
3. Ireland 8.2%
4. U.K. 8.7%
5. Canada 9.3%
Note that the US percentage does not include what is spent on restaurants or take-outs which is likely a significant percentage.
The countries where people spent the most are:
1. Azerbaijan 51.6%
2. Belarus 47.3%
3. Morocco 44.8%
4. Algeria 43.7%
5. Jordan 43.6%
In terms of per capita dollars spent annually, the picture is quite different:
Least amount spent:
1. Pakistan $18
2. India $141
3. Nigeria $168
4. Vietnam $169
5. China $207
Most amount spent:
1. Norway $3,591
2. Switzerland $3,040
3. France $2,776
4. Japan $2,768
5. Italy $2,765
18. Canada $1,994
23. US $1,848
Saturday, April 19, 2008
IMF and UN Rethorics Against BioFuels: Cut the US and EU Agricultural Subsidies Instead
Corn-based ethanol production in the US is known to be causing part of the current food inflation in the world since corn and grains serve as food basis for many areas of the world. The IMF (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), UN (Jean Ziegler), have recently taken the position of attacking biofuels in general. This rethoric has been increasing daily, to the point of declaring biofuels "a crime against humanity".
The world has over a billion of poor or hungry people, who were hungry before, and nobody was complaining then.
The problem is not biofuels.
Take the example of Brazil. Brazil has been producing Ethanol from sugar cane for over 20 years. Sugar cane is a much higher efficieny method of producing Ethanol. Aproximately half of Brazilians vars run on EThanol, even though the country will become in the future a major oil exporter. At the same time, Brazil has been increasing its production of grains and foods in general. The thesis that biofuels causes food inflation cannot be applied in that case.
Food inflation is complex and has many causes, increased demand from China, India, and other countries, and increased freight costs caused by the increase in the price of oil, and the subsidies in the US and the EU which prevent developing nations from exporting to those markets.
Brazil has proven that is possible to increase the production of biofuels and foods at the same time. Poor countries wish access to new technologies (equipment, techniques, seeds), financing, and the end of agricultural subsidies in the US and Europe. The US is producing Ethanol from what they have (corn), but why would they not rather buy it from Brazil, or partner with central americans countries which could produce it, and at the same time help alleviate the great poverty in these areas of the world? Brazil has been exporting its Ethanol-producing technology, currently doing so in Ghana.
Could the purpose of shifting the attention to biofules to divert attention from the Doha subsidies discussions? The problem has many roots. Could part of the problem be that US and European millionaires with huge lands wish to maintain their subsidies? The IMF and the UN should be attacking this instead. The problem is not biofuels.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Libor Rate Being Underestimated
The Libor, London Interbank Offered Rate, was created in the 80s and is a fundamental piece of the global financial system. It is computed in London every morning from data supplied by the world's banks and indicates the average interest rate that banks use to lend to each other.
The Libor rises when banks are in difficulty and drops when all is good. Interest rates on trlllions of dollars in debt are set by the Libor. In the last few months of troubles, the rate has shot up. The differecne between the 3-m ointh TBill and the Libor, a measure widely see as indicative of the financial health of banks, has gone from 0.4% in August 2007 to 1.6% today.
There are growing suspicions that the banks troubles are worse than they admit and that they do not wish to inform the real high rates they are paying because that would show how desperate for cash they are. If the banks are lieing, this also means that borrowers are paying less than what they should for their loans.
The BBA, British Bankers Association is reportedly investigating the misreporting issues. Concerns are in the written minutes of the Banbk of England meeting back in November 2007.
An analyst of Citigroup ( Scott Peng) estimates that the Libor is being underestimated by as much as 0.3%. If this is correct, the implications are tremendous.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Canadian ABCP Saga: Small Investors Hire Lawyers, Hedge Fund Offers to Buy ABCP and Sue Big Banks.
The Canadian ABCP SAGA took another twist today. Private "small" investors hired Juroviesky and Ricci to stop the big banks from trasforming their short term ABCP into 8 to 9 year term paper. This was the essence of the so-called plan to save the $33B frozen in ABCP that was being proposed by the big financial institutions in Canada, a controversial plan that has hit many road blocks and delays and is yet to be approved.
Small investors decided to fight, and because they greatly outnumber the big banks, they have some clout. Although the big banks control the majority of the funds, there are a total of 1,800 investors affected, so they are the ones in control. These investors bought this ABCP junk paper thinking that they were safe AAA short term vehicles, and are obviously not happy with the big bank "bailout" plan.
Henry Juroviesky, the lawyer from Juroviesky and Ricci, commented today on BNN that the investors have an offer from an American hedge fund that would pay these investors upfront, at a small discount, and then would use its massive Billions of resources to possibly sue the Canadian banks, not only for principal, but for damages too.
Bluff or not? We will soon find out. In any case, the plan as is, is more than dead.
UPDATE: Banks hit back:
"ABCP holders told they're welcome to invite vultures"
Globe and Mail April 3, 2008 at 3:05 PM EDT
"A committee trying to persuade small investors to support a proposal to restructure the frozen $32-billion market for asset-backed commercial paper would not object if they sold their holdings to U.S. vulture funds, a spokesman said Thursday."
Friday, March 28, 2008
Do Investors Hold over the Weekend or do They Sell?
Do investors sell their stocks on weekends so as to avoid potentially nasty surprises?
I looked at the closing data for each weekday in 2008 for DIA, SPY, and FXP (as well as FXI, XLF and VIX). DIA and SPY represent two broad indxes, FXP and FXI and Chinese ultra ETFs (short and long respectively), and the VIX is the volatility index.
For calculations I used the adjusted day's close minus close of the previous trading day. The objective was to see if people held these over the weekend. These are the results, and also shown in the graph above:
DIA:
Fridays: 10 down days, 2 up days, average -0.81%
Mondays: 4 down days, 6 up days, +0.35%
Tuesdays: 6 down days, 6 up days, +0.23%
Wednesdays: 6 down days, 7 up days, +0.03%
Thursdays: 6 down days, 7 up days, -0.14%
SPY:
Fridays: 10 down days, 2 up days, average -0.75%
Mondays: 5 down days, 5 up days, +0.23%
Tuesdays: 5 down days, 7 up days, +0.20%
Wednesdays: 7 down days, 5 up days, -0.14%
Thursdays: 7 down days, 6 up days, -0.13%
FXP:
Fridays: 5 down days, 7 up days, average +0.16%
Mondays: 6 down days, 4 up days, -0.56%
Tuesdays: 6 down days, 6 up days, +0.38%
Wednesdays: 5 down days, 7 up days, +1.61%
Thursdays: 5 down days, 8 up days, +1.29%
FXI:
Fridays: 7 down days, 5 up days, average -0.08%
Mondays: 3 down days, 7 up days, +0.47%
Tuesdays: 6 down days, 6 up days, -0.44%
Wednesdays: 7 down days, 5 up days, -0.71%
Thursdays: 8 down days, 5 up days, -0.74%
XLF:
Fridays: 7 down days, 5 up days, average -0.69%
Mondays: 5 down days, 5 up days, -0.51%
Tuesdays: 6 down days, 6 up days, +0.79%
Wednesdays: 7 down days, 5 up days, -0.01%
Thursdays: 8 down days, 5 up days, -0.35%
VIX:
Fridays: 6 down days, 6 up days, average +1.75%
Mondays: 7 down days, 3 up days, +0.01%
Tuesdays: 7 down days, 5 up days, -0.88%
Wednesdays: 5 down days, 7 up days, +0.57%
Thursdays: 7 down days, 6 up days, -0.54%
SUMMARY:
Looks like the results for DIA and SPY are pretty conclusive for Fridays. It seems that few people want to hold these during weekends. This is also consistent with the VIX being up on Fridays, percentage wise.
Interestingly FXP seems to do very well (long) on Wednesdays and Thursdays.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Counterparty to Leveraged or Inverse ETFs
If you think you can make money by investing in leveraged ETFs, please make sure you know who your ETF's counterparty is. For example, one such ETF is the ProShares SKF, which features a 2X inverse return on financials. Sounds like a great place to invest funds if you expect the mess in the US to continue. Well, nothing is free. All these funds have counterparties, and as you know these days these counterparties may go bankrupt at any time. In fact, last week had the Fed not intervened, a like very big counterparty was supposed to go bankrupt until it was bailed out by the Fed (using future American children's money).
I asked ProShares who the counterparty to SKF is. This is their response:
"Thank you for your email today regarding ProShares. At this time, ProShares LLC does not disclose the counterparty names for the derivative products within the portfolio. Please refer to the attached prospectus for further information on the UltraShort Financials fund.
Sincerely,
ProShares Shareholder Services"
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Canadian ABCP Rescue Saga Continues
After missing several deadlines to complete the rescue plan, the agreement has failed yet again. So now the major players are seeking bankruptcy protection for the 20 trusts that issued the paper. This saga has been going on since last August.
The banks will file an application in Ontario Superior Court to put the 20 trusts under the protection of the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act, a law normally used by companies that are trying to restructure under bankruptcy protection, thus preventing creditors from seizing assets and halts lawsuits against the company.
Meanwhile, investors in the supposedly safe funds are out of luck. None of this is unexpected but with the deteroriation of the banks situtation in the US, any hope that whoever put money into these funds will be able to recover it at full value and soon is just misguided.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Noront and Fancamp Update, Just be Patient
As reported in February. Robert McEwen and others bought into a private offering of Noront. The purchase price was $4, with additional warrants at $5, exercisable for 2 years. Noront currently trades around $7, just a few weeks after this announcement. These investors have made, at least on paper, many millions of dollars of profit.
Fancamp reached today a new 52-week high, currently trading around $3. This stock was trading at $1.30 in January, and around $0.17 1 year ago.
These stocks will likely have major pullbacks, offering new entry opportunities. As the markets experience severe down swings, expect these stocks to be hit hard as investors take profits and get rid of speculative positions. All you need is patience to get a better entry point.
NOT has the best drill results (so far), FNC the best property.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Canadian ABCP Rescue Plan in Even More Disarray
The group that's trying to restructure the $33-billion in frozen asset-backed commercial paper confirmed that the plan will be delayed until the end of April, "as details of the plan, such as participation by Canadian banks, have yet to be nailed down amid crumbling credit markets.". BMO has reported that is it pulling out. CIBC keeps reporting bigger losses.
Nobody here is surprised. The deal is suffering the same fate as its even more troubled American counterpart Super Fund announced last year and never heard of again. The American plan also had comitted funds from the largest US banks, which we know, have no funds.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Noront, Deal of a Lifetime
Noront spiked today, yet again.
McFauld's Lake, McNugget, it's all McEwen. Robert McEwen is is scooping up in shares and warrants in both Noront (NOT.v) and McDonalds (BMK.v). In the case of NOT, he gets shares at $4, plus warrants at $5.
After the BMK announcement was made last October, the shares jumped to over $1, to then drop to the current $0.60. Perhaps the same will happen with NOT, which spiked up today and made many here happy.
My approach with these is to keep a small core position and keep trading in and out to reduce the ACB. So far, so good, I have likely reduce ACB by about 50%. The stocks are highly speculative and you get many chances to get in and out. Other holdings in the area: FWR.V and FNC.V
NOT:
Each unit was priced at $4.00 and consists of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share of Noront at an exercise price of $5.00 for a period of two years from the date of issue.
Bought by Rosseau Asset Management; Pinetree Capital Ltd.; Robert McEwen, President, Evanachan Limited; Pierre Lassonde, Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation; Sprott Asset Management; and Northfield Capital Corporation
BMK:
Gross proceeds of $10,000,000, through the sale of 25,000,000 units of the Company. A total of 15,625,000 units of the Company will be sold on a "hard dollar" basis (the "Hard Units") at a price of $0.40 per Hard Unit for gross proceeds of $6,250,000. A further 9,375,000 units of the Company will be sold on a flow-through basis (the "FT Units") at price of $0.40 per FT Unit for gross proceeds of $3,750,000. Each Hard Unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant (the "Hard Warrants"). Each FT Unit will consist of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non flow-through common share purchase warrant (each whole warrant an "FT Warrant" and collectively, with the Hard Warrants, the "Warrants"). Each Warrant will entitle the holder thereof to acquire one common share at a price of $0.50 for a period of 24 months from the date of issuance.
Bought by Sheldon Inwentash - Chairman & CEO, Pinetree Capital Ltd., Robert McEwen - Chairman & CEO, US Gold Corporation, Pierre Lassonde - Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation, and Randall Oliphant - Chairman, Western Gold Fields Inc.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Food Inflation, More Packaging, Less Product: An Opportunity
When was the last time you bought ice-cream at a supermarket? The vast majority of ice-cream vendors have reduced their size from 2L to 1.65L, but have blatantly kept the same price. This is not just Nestle, it has happened with most brands. Most likely this is to cope with the rising cost of milk and inflation, which we have discussed here so many times.
So, who makes ice-cream packaging? There is someone who might be doing well in the future.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
ABCP Woes: Coventree Shutting Down
With regards to the troubled $33B in frozen Canadian ABCP, Coventree lost a competition to administer the restructured non-bank asset backed commercial paper in Canada, and will likely have to wind up its operations as a result.
Coventree says its revenues are no longer expected to cover expenses, and its administration business is no longer viable: "the range of options that remain under consideration are limited and will likely involve, among other things, the orderly windup of the company's operations pending implementation of the restructuring plan".
Coventree (COF.to) was trading at $0.86 Friday.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
The Myth of Fed Injections
Every week many people post about large Fed injections and their effect on the stock market. This activity is particularly strong on Thursdays when most TOMOs are due. Big media outlets and lots of bloggers will claim that the Fed has injected or withdrawn billions of dollars and that this will somehow have an effect on the stock market.
This Google spreadsheet computed all fed injections since Jan 2006, and computed its correlation to the DJIA and SP500 indexes (through DIA and SPY), using nearly 600 data points. The complete spreadsheet is here.
A correlation analysis was done on this "injections" and the stock market movements for each quarter since Q1 2006. Results:
- The correlation between Fed injections and DIA is -0.06.
- The correlation between Fed injections and SPY is -0.17.
The correlation between the SPY and the DIA is 0.95. A number close to zero means there is no correlation, a number close to 1 indicates a high correlation.
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Next time you hear or read about the Fed injections and the market, perhaps it's best to ignore!
Friday, January 18, 2008
Results of Investing in Straddles in January
The following is a list of straddle results performed on several ETFs on January 4 2008. This table shows the results if you had bought both calls and puts on that day. Strangles/straddles are great if you are not sure of market direction. If the market does move either way you win.
To performer was the DIA 130-126 position. DIA at the time was trading at 128.17. Yesterday's close was 121.77.
Overall, investors on DIA, SPY, and even IWM would have done very well. The only losing positions were XLF and an extreme IWM straddle.
You can view the complete list, and in much better formatting, at: http://nexalogic.com/strangles.html
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Friday, January 4, 2008
New Potash Company IPOs in Canada
Following on the theme of global food inflation, whose demand is mostly triggered by increased global income (population eating better), Athabasca Potash started trading under symbol API on the Toronto exchange.
Potash has no commercial substitute its application increases yield & plant health.
The company is exploring its Burr Project and recently completed a 2D seismic survey of the project as well as five new exploration drill wells. After the IPO the Company will proceed with further exploration, a scoping study, and a preliminary feasibility study to assess the viability of underground potash mining. Athabasca also plans to conduct exploration programs over the other ten exploration permits it holds in addition to the Burr Project.
API started trading on December 13. The IPO had an offering of 10,140,000 common shares at a price of CDN$4.25 per share, for gross proceeds of CDN$43 million. The stock reached a high of $10.47 and is currently trading at over $10. There are just over 34M shares outstanding. Assays are expected in Q1 2008, new resource estimate in Q2 2008. Production is several years into the future (7-10 years).
The Burr project is located in Saskatchewan, the prime location of reserves of Potash Inc. Saskatchewan holds over 50% of the world’s potash reserves.
Click here for Athabasca Corporate Presentation. I have no position in this company, I am just keeping an eye on it.
Friday, December 14, 2007
CPI Year Over Year Data for Raw Foods
The November PPI in Year Over Year Percentage Increases
The November PPI was published yesterday. Below you will find the same list compiled with year over year percentage increases. Note farm products up 21%.
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Friday, November 23, 2007
ABCP: Perimeter Financial Spats With Montreal Accord Banks
Last week Perimeter Financial announced plans to allow investors to start trading the $35B frown ABCP papers in Canada. Yesterday, its CEO lashed out at the banks that instituted a trading moratorium, calling them "self-serving and paternalistic." He says the Pan-Canadian Committee is looking after their own interests and ignoring everyone else (is he surprised?).
A day earlier, committee chair Purdy Crawford criticized Perimeter's bid to kick start the trading, calling it an attempt to exploit desperate, cash-strapped investors, he suggested their motivation was to "induce panic in the market in order to acquire ABCP at distressed prices."
The Montreal Accord approach has sparked controversy among small investors who bought the paper as a short-term investment and can't afford to keep it on their books. The Montreal Accord banks want to switch this paper into longer term notes. This was clearly never the intent of the investors.
There does not seem to be any angels in this company. Shark-infested waters indeed.
Source FP.








