Friday, October 23, 2009

Natural Gas Inventories: Storage At Record

Natural gas invesntories were reported yesterday showing another injection of 18Bcf. The expected was 21Bcf. Storage is a rccord high of 3.734Tcf. The chart above compares this year with last year, and the 5-year average range. We are way over the average channel: +8.4% over the maximum, and 22.6% over the minimum. Theoretical capacity is 3.85Tcf. This in theory would mean overflow would occur in 6 weeks. However, I believe these numbers are no longer reliable and do not mean much at this point.

As we get closer to capacity, injection will be reported smaller and smaller. There simply is not room for further injections. We may already be at or very near capacticy. All I can say is that to bet that this is bullish for natural gas is insane. All those people who talk abotu how cheap gas is on a BTU per BTU basis compared with oil are dreaming. It is not possible to convert from oil to gas in any small amount of time.
To all those people who tell you that production has been declining, show them the production chart:

There are no signs of impending hurricanes either:

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