Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Investing in Gold: What is Best, GLD or Miners?

The chart below plots the ratio of GDX (miners index in the U.S.) divided by GLD for the last 3 years:

(please click to enlarge)

As can be seen, the ratio dropped to its lows in 2008, in the middle of the financial crisis when risk aversion was highest. At that time nobody wanted to own anything as risky as miners.

In recent weeks and months the ratio has been climbing up but is still below its long level of aroundf 0.60 orm higher. Currrently it sits at 0.45.

Barring another crisis, this would suggest either the miners rise further or gold drops.

Note however, the ratio between GDX and the SPX (S&P500) is near an all-time high.

This mean miners are expensive compared to the broad makret. Miners are a very risky proposition. Straddles anyone?

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