Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Roubini Says US Dollar Has 6 More Months of Lows, The Carry-Trade Goes On

Economist Nouriel Roubini is predicting the Us Dollar has 6 more months as the carry-trade currency. While he maintains that global markets have rallied "too much, too soon, too fast", a correction will not happen right away because the cheap dollar will still encourage investors to seek higher-yielding assets for a few more months.

"A correction might occur, but the risk of a correction is more in the medium term than in the short term," The U.S. economic recovery will be anemic, subpar and U-shaped, which should translate into worse-than-expected corporate earnings and macroeconomic indicators, eventually forcing asset prices down.

"I see this kind of tension due to the fact that I think that the real economy will surprise on the downside, especially when the stimulus fizzles out, but on the other side you have these effects of policies, especially monetary and liquidity, that keep asset prices levitating,"

Emerging Markets and Brazil

(We track latin-american ADRS live here and global ETFs here)

Commenting on the effects of their rising currencies, he says emerging markets will be challenged toto implement effective policies to curb excessive capital inflows that have led to "overvalued" currencies.

"The solution is probably along the lines of capital controls," he said, noting that the measures such as as the 2% IOF (tax) adopted by the Brazilian government so far were not "tight enough" to curb short-term dollar inflows. He remains positive about the Brazilian economy, in spite of "froth and euphoria" in the domestic markets. Humm, we commented in this before.

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