Friday, February 12, 2010

Roubini: Another Hard Landing Coming, Dollar Will Not Weaken Much From Now On, Where Will the Growth Come From? It Won't

After China has tightened lending again, Nouriel Roubini was on CNBC today just putting it all on the table. It's a lot of cold water for those who think the economy will recover nicely.

Some points:

  • The question is whether China will have a soft landing or a hard landing. There were two episodes of China tighteninglatelty, in 2004, when there was a soft landing, and in 2007, when there was a hard landing. He thinks this time it will be like 2007.
  • The reported 5% GDP growth was due to inventories
  • US growth will slow down in 2nd half of the year as stimulus dies down
  • Dollar will not weaken much, where is the growth coming from?

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