Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Number of Online Help Wanted Ads Declines by 108,000: Bad for Non-Farm Payroll Report This Friday


The Conference Board just released its monthly report on the number of online help wanted ads. The numbers are not good, falling by 101,800 in September.

This could be an indication that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report may dissapoint, so be careful.

Highlights:

- September losses partially offset the larger August gains in job demand
Trends for largest states remain unchanged
- Outlook: National trend slightly positive since April with increases in job demand averaging 40,000/month
- Occupations: Healthcare professions continue to be in increasing demand
- Labor demand continues to remain well below year-ago levels for most occupations

Historical chart:


(please click to enlarge)

Online advertised vacancies declined by 101,800 to 3,363,000 in September, according to The Conference Board Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series.
September losses partially offset the larger August gains (+169,000), leaving labor demand up by 67,000 over the past two months. Since the low point in April 2009, labor demand is up by 201,000, showing a modest upward trend following a five-month period of steep losses.

"While the trend has been modestly upward and averaged 40,000 per month over the last five months, the labor market continues to have a hard time gaining momentum," said Gad Levanon, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. "The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, which has been basically flat for three straight months, also helps highlight the difficulty the labor market is facing. With a growing consensus of a weak recovery, businesses seem to be slow to boost advertising for vacant or new positions."

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