Thursday, September 17, 2009

Top 20 Companies Likely to Go Bankrupt

Financial research and risk modeling firm Audit Integrity released the results of its bankruptcy model research in which it has
identified the 20 corporations (with $1 billion or more in market cap), with highest probability of declaring bankruptcy in the next 12 months.

In the U.S banrupcies are up 64 percent over the first half results in 2008.

Audit Integrity takes into account changes to the economic environment and
potential for corporate fraud. They claim that this new approach greatly
improves the identification of companies at risk of bankruptcy.

Sector specially vulnerable:

- Media and transportation industries are especially vulnerable: TV and
Publishing companies are over four times as risky as other companies.

- Automobile and airline industries, only slightly less risky.

Here are the companies:

* Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
* Amkor Technology, Inc.
* AMR Corporation
* Apartment Investment and Management Co.
* CBS Corporation
* Continental Airlines, Inc.
* Federal-Mogul Corporation
* Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.
* Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.
* Las Vegas Sands Corp.
* Liberty Media Corporation (Capital)
* Macy's, Inc.
* Mylan Inc.
* Oshkosh Corporation
* Redwood Trust, Inc.
* Rite Aid Corporation
* Sirius XM Radio Inc.
* Sprint Nextel Corporation
* Textron Inc.
* The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company

Long term or LEAP straddles on these have a good chance of paying off, or simply long terms OTM puts.

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gabby said...
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