SVA up 543%, Up to 30% of Asia's Population to be Infected with H1N1

Back on September 8 we posted a list of H1N1 vaccine manufacturers that could profit from the current scare.

Today, more media is adding to the scare, which will ultimatelty benefit the drug companies. The Standard from Honk Kong in an article titles "Race against time" reports that up to 30 percent of Asia's population is predicted to be sickened by H1N1 virus (swine flu) amid a "global vaccine shortage". It says that the WHO, World Health Organization, and Hong Kong health leaders were guarded on the safety of the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine, one of te ones in our list (stock SVA). The vaccine is one that Hong Kong health authorities are considering.

Shin Young Soo, WHO's regional director for the Western Pacific, said that the vaccine (the first registered by mainland authorities for the H1N1 strain) is just as effective as the Western-made vaccines. However, its safety has still to be tested in mass vaccinations, although China has already started vaccinating people with it (!)

He said that estimates are "from 20 to 30 percent of the population in the WHO's Western Pacific region eventually will be affected - or between 448 million and 672 million people.", with a worst-case death scenario is 0.1 to 0.5 percent of those infected.

He said clinical trials have shown mild side effects, "But we are talking about vaccinating millions and millions of people, so there is some possibility of serious side effects," Shin said. These include paralysis and neurological damage (such as Guillaume-Barre Syndrome).

I have a friend who had Guillaume-Barre. He was ther most active person I knew. He used to play sports 6 days a week. Today, several years later he still uses a cane to walk.

Lam Ping-yan, Hong Kong Director of Health, who visited the Beijing-based Sinovac plant said that "The vaccine produced at that particular plant is of very high quality and safe."

China's vaccine production will be enough to inoculate 5% of its population. There have been about 10,000 confirmed cases but no official deaths. Hong Kong has had 15 deaths from H1N1.

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SVA has had an impressive runup YTD (up +543%) with skyrocketing volume: